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Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics

Giulia Rivolta () and Carmine Trecroci ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We explore empirically the transmission of U.S. financial and macroeconomic uncertainty to emerging market economies (EMEs). We start by assuming that there are crucial differences between volatility and uncertainty, and between the latter and its shocks. With the help of Bayesian vector autoregressions, we first identify two measures of U.S. uncertainty shocks, which appear to explain the dynamics of output developments better than conventional volatility measures. Next, we find evidence that adverse shocks to U.S. aggregate uncertainty are associated with marked contractions in some EMEs’ business cycles. However, we detect significant cross-country heterogeneity in the responses of EMEs’ business cycles to U.S uncertainty shocks. We also find generalized declines in stock market values, which supports the so-called Global Financial Cycle hypothesis.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Monetary policy; Asset prices; Emerging markets. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C31 E44 E52 E58 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fdg, nep-mac and nep-mon
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