Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production in Thailand

Siwabhorn Pipitpukdee, Witsanu Attavanich and Somskaow Bejranonda

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study investigated the impact of climate change on yield, harvested area, and production of sugarcane in Thailand using spatial regression together with an instrumental variable approach to address the possible selection bias. The data were comprised of new fine-scale weather outcomes merged together with a provincial-level panel of crops that spanned all provinces in Thailand from 1989–2016. We found that in general climate variables, both mean and variability, statistically determined the yield and harvested area of sugarcane. Increased population density reduced the harvested area for non-agricultural use. Considering simultaneous changes in climate and demand of land for non-agricultural development, we reveal that the future sugarcane yield, harvested area, and production are projected to decrease by 23.95%–33.26%, 1.29%–2.49%, and 24.94%–34.93% during 2046–2055 from the baseline, respectively. Sugarcane production is projected to have the largest drop in the eastern and lower section of the central regions. Given the role of Thailand as a global exporter of sugar and the importance of sugarcane production in Thai agriculture, the projected declines in the production could adversely affect the well-being of one million sugarcane growers and the stability of sugar price in the world market.

Keywords: climate change impacts; sugarcane; yield; harvested area; production; Thai agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 Q15 Q16 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-02-29, Revised 2020-04-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Published in Atmosphere 11.4(2020): pp. 1-16

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:99796

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