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Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors

Rangan Gupta (), Mampho Modise () and Josine Uwilingiye
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Mampho Modise: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and South African Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa

No 201122, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper uses a predictive regression framework to examine the out-of-sample predictability of South Africa’s equity premium, using a host of financial and macroeconomic variables. Past studies tend to suggest that the predictors on their own fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecast gains relative to the historical average (random walk model). We therefore employ various methods of forecast combination, bootstrap aggregation (bagging), principal component and Bayesian regressions to allow for a simultaneous role of the variables under consideration. Our results show that forecast combination methods and principal component regressions improve the predictability of the equity premium relative to the benchmark random walk model. However, the Bayesian predictive regressions are found to be the standout performers with the models outperforming the individual regressions, forecast combination methods, bagging and principal component regressions.

Keywords: Equity Premium; Predictive Regressions; Forecast Combinations; Bagging; Principal Component Regressions; Bayesian Predictive Regressions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 C22 C33 C53 G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2011-10
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Journal Article: Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors (2016) Downloads
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