On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data

Christian Pierdzioch, Monique Reid and Rangan Gupta

No 201463, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.

Keywords: Inflation rate; Forecasting; Directional Accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D82 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2014-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: On the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts: evidence from South African survey data (2018)
Working Paper: On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pre:wpaper:201463

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