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Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility Using Consumption-Aggregate Wealth Ratios: A Nonlinear Approach

Stelios Bekiros and Rangan Gupta ()

No 201505, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: Recent empirical evidence based on a linear framework tends to suggest that a Markov-switching version of the consumption-aggregate wealth ratio (cayMS), developed to account for structural breaks, is a better predictor of stock returns than the conventional measure (cay) – a finding we confirm as well. Using quarterly data over 1952:Q1-2013:Q3, we however provide statistical evidence that the relationship between stock returns and cay or cayMS is in fact nonlinear. Then, given this evidence of nonlinearity, using a nonparametric Granger causality test, we show that it is in fact cay and not cayMS which is a stronger predictor of not only stock returns, but also volatility.

Keywords: cay; Stock markets; Volatility; Nonlinear causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C58 G10 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 6 pages
Date: 2015-02
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