Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty

Stelios Bekiros, Rangan Gupta and Alessia Paccagnini

No 201518, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian and TVP-VAR models against the random-walk and benchmark AR models. Our results indicate that over the period 1900:1-2014:2 the time-varying VAR model with stochastic volatility outranks all alternative models.

Keywords: Oil prices; economic policy uncertainty; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C53 E60 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 7 pages
Date: 2015-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (62)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty (2015)
Working Paper: Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty (2015)
Working Paper: Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pre:wpaper:201518

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rangan Gupta ().