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Geopolitical Risks and Recessions in a Panel of Advanced Economies: Evidence from Over a Century of Data

Matthew Clance, Rangan Gupta and Mark Wohar ()

No 201807, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper uses a panel of seventeen advanced countries over the annual period of 1899-2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors, based on a logit model, we find that, while aggregate geopolitical risks does not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhances the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.

Keywords: Geopolitical Risks; Recessions; Advanced Economies; Panel Data; Logit Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2018-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data (2019) Downloads
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