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Does Inequality Really Matter in Forecasting Real Housing Returns of the United Kingdom?

Hossein Hassani (), Mohammad Yeganegi () and Rangan Gupta ()
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Hossein Hassani: The Statistical Research Centre, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK
Mohammad Yeganegi: Department of Statistics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

No 201859, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the potential role of growth in inequality for forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom (UK). In our forecasting exercise, we use linear and nonlinear models, as well as, measures of absolute and relative consumption and income inequalities at quarterly frequency over the period of 1975 to 2016. Our results indicate that, while nonlinearity in the data generating process of real housing returns is important, growth in inequality does not necessarily carry important information in forecasting the future path of housing prices in the UK.

Keywords: Income and Consumption Inequalities; Real Housing Returns; Forecasting; Linear and Nonlinear Models; United Kingdom (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-ure
Date: 2018-09
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