From Search to Signal: Dynamic Spillovers Between Biodiversity Attention and Climate Attention in South Africa

Beverley Wingfield (), Onur Polat (), Sonali Das () and Rangan Gupta ()
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Beverley Wingfield: Department of Financial Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Onur Polat: Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye
Sonali Das: Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Rangan Gupta: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa

No 202613, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: Biodiversity loss and climate change are often treated as a single environmental problem, yet it remains unclear whether they generate distinct forms of public attention. This paper addresses this gap by examining whether biodiversity-related attention constitutes an independent signal or is largely absorbed within climate attention. We construct a South African Biodiversity Attention Index (SABAI) using monthly Google Trends data from 2004--2025 based on a 242-term dictionary that combines global biodiversity concepts with South African ecological terminology. SABAI is analysed jointly with the Climate Attention Index for South Africa (CAI-SA) within a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness framework. The results show that biodiversity attention and climate attention are positively related but not interchangeable. Biodiversity attention acts as the dominant net transmitter of shocks for most of the sample, while climate attention is generally the net receiver. Crucially, total connectedness declines over time, providing clear evidence that the two attention series are becoming increasingly distinct rather than more integrated. The dynamics of SABAI further suggest that biodiversity attention responds to identifiable biodiversityrelated events. These findings establish that biodiversity attention captures an independent and evolving dimension of environmental concern. The results challenge the common practice of treating biodiversity loss as a secondary component of climate change and highlight the need to analyse biodiversity dynamics in their own right.

Keywords: Biodiversity Attention Index; Climate Attention Index; Google Trends; Spillover; South Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 Q54 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2026-04
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