Estimating the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Economy Using Nightlights Data

Till Sanger, Ethan Kapstein and Ronnie Sircar
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Till Sanger: Princeton University
Ethan Kapstein: Princeton University
Ronnie Sircar: Princeton University

Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers from Empirical Studies of Conflict Project

Abstract: The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 led to the withdrawal of much of the West’s massive financial support to that country. The consequences are widespread for the government and its people, and news reports suggest that the economy is in "collapse." In this article, we go beyond qualitative and survey-based measures of the Afghan economy by using nightlights as a proxy measure for changes in GDP. Utilizing a synthetic control based on provinces of other countries in the region, we find that the Taliban takeover caused a shift from a positive growth trajectory towards a deep recession. Specifically, we estimate that Afghanistan’s GDP has likely fallen by about 15 percent since mid-2021, a shock comparable to the annual economic downturn of the United States during the peak of the Great Depression.

Keywords: Afghanistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pri:esocpu:34

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