On Weak and Strong Population Momentum

Thomas Espenshade, Analia Olgiati and Simon Levin
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Thomas Espenshade: Princeton University
Analia Olgiati: Princeton University
Simon Levin: Princeton University

No 1167, Working Papers from Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Office of Population Research.

Abstract: This paper decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts called weak momentum and strong momentum. Weak momentum depends on deviations between a population's observed age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Strong momentum is a function of deviations between a population's implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of weak and strong momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, if the observed age distribution is stable or if initial fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating weak, strong, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the paper brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.

Keywords: population; momentum; fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 D19 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-06
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