Working Papers

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2025: Government Assistance, Bank Screening, and Firm Investment: Evidence from a Natural Disaster

Sujiao Zhao and José Jorge

2025: Judicial Enforcement, Credit Frictions, and the Transmission of Bankruptcy through Firm Networks

Gil Nogueira and Geraldo Cerqueiro

2025: Large-dimensional cointegrated threshold factor models: The Global Term Structure of Interest Rates

Paulo Rodrigues and Daniel Abreu

2025: Socio-economic sensitivity to weather extremes: A scoping review of European research

Paulo Rodrigues, Dhruv Akshay Pandit and Miguel de Castro Neto

2025: Covid and War shocks

José R. Maria and Paulo Júlio

2025: On the measurement and forecasting of sales volatility: is the quantile approach better?

Nuno Silva

2025: Recovery, quantified: How we built a dataset of loan recovery estimates

Jaime Leyva and Tiago Pinheiro

2025: Understanding Household Vulnerabilities in Portugal

Frederico Mira Godinho and Orchi Modhurima

2025: Sectoral Interconnectedness in Portugal and the Role of Non-Bank Financial Institutions

Martín Saldias and Sophia Mizinski

2025: Uncovering transition risk: A new stress testing approach for the banking sector

Martín Saldias and Roberto Panzica

2025: The Regional Economic Impact of Weather Shocks: Evidence from Portugal

Paulo Rodrigues, Dhruv Akshay Pandit and João Seixo

2025: Bond Financing Conditions, Economic Activity and the Financial Accelerator

Eduardo Maqui, Márcia Silva-Pereira and Nicholas Vause

2025: Firms’ Transport Mode Choices in International Trade

João Amador, Carlos Melo Gouveia and Ana Catarina Pimenta

2025: Fiscal Drag in Theory and in Practice: a European Perspective

Lara Wemans and Et Al.

2025: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

Maria Manuel Campos, José Miguel Cardoso da Costa, Sandra Gomes and Pascal Jacquinot

2025: Household Borrowing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Post-Pandemic Insights from Nine European Credit Registers

Diana Bonfim, Sujiao Zhao and Olivier De Jonghe

2025: Climate policy is not fiscal policy: understanding attitudes towards climate action

Ana Fontoura Gouveia and João Carvalho

2025: Developing a Financial Stability Network Model: The Macroprudential Two-Mode Network (M2MN) toolbox

Daniel Maas, Roberto Panzica and Martin Saldias

2025: The Real and Financial Effects of Local Corporate Tax Increases: Evidence from Linked Firm–Bank Data

Joao Duarte and Afonso S. Moura

2025: Estimating individuals’ default risk in Portugal

Tiago Pinheiro and Carolina Nunes

2025: The risk of large losses in credit portfolios

Tiago Pinheiro and Miguel Inverneiro

2025: Tax Structures and Fiscal Multipliers in HANK Models

Ante Šterc, Othman Bouabdallah and Pascal Jacquinot

2025: House Hunting High and Low: Constructing a Housing Search Index for Portugal

Frederico Mira Godinho and Katja Neugebauer

2025: Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Portugal: A Nonparametric Quantile Approach

Katja Neugebauer and Fernando Cascão

2025: Liquidity dependencies in the euro area

Carla Soares

2025: Complementarities between capital buffers and dividend prudential target

Duarte Maia and Domenica Di Virgilio

2025: Testing for Multiple Structural Breaks in Multivariate Long Memory Regression Models

Paulo Rodrigues, Vivien Less and Philipp Sibbertsen

2025: Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy

Christoph Kaufmann, Jaime Leyva and Manuela Storz

2025: The Short Lags of Monetary Policy

Afonso S. Moura, Gergely Buda, Vasco Carvalho, Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao Duarte, Stephen Hansen, Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, José V. Rodríguez Mora and Guilherme Alves da Silva

2025: A DSTI limit in an increasing interest rate environment: benefits across the LSTI distribution

Joana Passinhas and Isabel Proença

2025: The recoveries database from the Portuguese Credit Register

Jaime Leyva and Tiago Pinheiro

2025: Descentralização em Portugal: Financiamento, Desafios e Perspetivas do Novo Modelo

Ana Abrunhosa, António Galvão and Sofia Terlica

2025: On the use of collateral by Portuguese monetary policy counterparties: facts and lessons for the future

Jorge Mourato, Madalena Borges, Francisco Gaspar and Hugo Nogueira

2024: Inflation, fiscal policy and inequality

Sara Riscado, Antonio Amores, Henrique Basso, Johannes Simeon Bischl, Paola De Agostini, Silvia De Poli, Emanuele Dicarlo, Maria Flevotomou, Maximilian Freier, Sofia Maier, Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Myroslav Pidkuyko and Mattia Ricci

2024: The gender pay gap at the top: the role of networks

Sharmin Sazedj and José Tavares

2024: The Macroeconomic Impact of Agricultural Input Subsidies

Laszlo Tetenyi and Karol Mazur

2024: Export Promotion with Matchmaking and Grants: Evidence from Portuguese Firms

João Amador, Paulo Barbosa and Esmeralda Arranhado

2024: Distance to Export: A Machine Learning Approach with Portuguese Firms

João Amador, Paulo Barbosa and João Cortes

2024: On the band spectral estimation of business cycle models

Nikolay Iskrev

2024: Post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Portugal: an application of the Bernanke-Blanchard model

Nuno Gonçalves

2024: Treasure Islands, Real Jobs? Workers and Anti-Avoidance Policies in a Tax Paradise

Sonia Cabral, Joana Garcia, Raquel Miranda, Susana Peralta and João Pereira dos Santos

2024: Consumer Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Food CPI Microdata

Fernando Martins and João Nuno Quelhas

2024: Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality

Afonso S. Moura, Lorenz Emter, Nico Zorell and Ralph Setzer

2024: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of IPCC Scenarios: Mitigation, Adaptation, and Carbon Sinks

Bernardino Adao, António R. Antunes and Nuno Lourenço

2024: A simple but powerful tail index regression

Paulo Rodrigues and Nicolau João

2024: Health Shocks, Social Insurance, and Firms

Attila Gyetvai, Anikó Bíró, István Boza and Daniel Prinz

2024: The role of firms’ characteristics on banks’ interest rates

Jaime Leyva

2024: Corporate Reorganization and the Reallocation of Labor in Bankruptcy

Diana Bonfim and Gil Nogueira

2024: On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations

Pedro Portugal, Rodrigo Barrela and Eduardo Costa

2024: Parental Investments and Socio-Economic Gradients in Learning across European Countries

Hugo Reis, Pedro Carneiro and Alessandro Toppeta

2024: Bayesian smoothing for time-varying extremal dependence

António Rua, Junho Lee, Miguel de Carvalho and Julio Avila

2024: Risk and heterogeneity in benefits from vocational versus general secondary education: estimates for early and mature career stages

Hugo Reis, Joop Hartog and Pedro Raposo

2024: A Temporary VAT Cut in Three Acts: Announcement, Implementation, and Reversal

João Nuno Quelhas, Tiago Bernardino, Ricardo Duque Gabriel and Márcia Silva-Pereira

2024: The Monetary Financing of a Large Fiscal Shock

Pedro Teles and Oreste Tristani

2024: Time-varying effects of monetary and macroprudential policies: does high inflation matter?

Wildmer Daniel Gregori and Ângelo Ramos

2024: Monitoring the EU-UK FDI links following Brexit

Ana M. de Almeida, Graeme Walsh, Horatiu Lovin, Marek Benda and Wilko Bolt

2024: Occasional paper on Decentralised Finance

Katja Neugebauer, João Almeida, João Alves, Carlos Bettencourt, Maria Bettencourt, Madalena Borges, Filipa Castilho, Sónia Correia, Gisela Fonseca, Mariana Júdice, André Leal, Afonso Marques, Carla Marques, Carlos Martins, Anaísa Oliveira, Céline Pereira, Joana Pratas, Leonor Queiró, Ricardo Sá, Joana Santos, Dina Teixeira, Pedro Tomés and Isabel Vasconcelos

2024: Policies to tackle energy poverty: the case of Portugal

Sónia Félix and Ana Fontoura Gouveia