Working Papers

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2025: Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy

Christoph Kaufmann, Jaime Leyva and Manuela Storz

2025: The Short Lags of Monetary Policy

Afonso S. Moura, Gergely Buda, Vasco M. Carvalho, Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao Duarte, Stephen Hansen, Álvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, José V. Rodríguez Mora and Guilherme Alves da Silva

2024: Inflation, fiscal policy and inequality

Sara Riscado, Antonio F. Amores, Henrique Basso, Johannes Simeon Bischl, Paola De Agostini, Silvia De Poli, Emanuele Dicarlo, Maria Flevotomou, Maximilian Freier, Sofia Maier, Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Myroslav Pidkuyko and Mattia Ricci

2024: The gender pay gap at the top: the role of networks

Sharmin Sazedj and José Tavares

2024: The Macroeconomic Impact of Agricultural Input Subsidies

Laszlo Tetenyi and Karol Mazur

2024: Export Promotion with Matchmaking and Grants: Evidence from Portuguese Firms

João Amador, Paulo Barbosa and Esmeralda Arranhado

2024: Distance to Export: A Machine Learning Approach with Portuguese Firms

João Amador, Paulo Barbosa and João Cortes

2024: On the band spectral estimation of business cycle models

Nikolay Iskrev

2024: Post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Portugal: an application of the Bernanke-Blanchard model

Nuno Gonçalves

2024: Treasure Islands, Real Jobs? Workers and Anti-Avoidance Policies in a Tax Paradise

Sonia Cabral, Joana Garcia, Raquel Miranda, Susana Peralta and João Pereira dos Santos

2024: Consumer Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Food CPI Microdata

Fernando Martins and João Nuno Quelhas

2024: Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality

Afonso S. Moura, Lorenz Emter, Nico Zorell and Ralph Setzer

2024: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of IPCC Scenarios: Mitigation, Adaptation, and Carbon Sinks

Bernardino Adão, António R. Antunes and Nuno Lourenço

2024: A simple but powerful tail index regression

Paulo M.M. Rodrigues and Nicolau João

2024: Health Shocks, Social Insurance, and Firms

Attila Gyetvai, Anikó Bíró, István Boza and Daniel Prinz

2024: The role of firms’ characteristics on banks’ interest rates

Jaime Leyva

2024: Corporate Reorganization and the Reallocation of Labor in Bankruptcy

Diana Bonfim and Gil Nogueira

2024: On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations

Pedro Portugal, Rodrigo Barrela and Eduardo Costa

2024: Parental Investments and Socio-Economic Gradients in Learning across European Countries

Hugo Reis, Pedro Carneiro and Alessandro Toppeta

2024: Bayesian smoothing for time-varying extremal dependence

António Rua, Junho Lee, Miguel de Carvalho and Julio Avila

2024: Risk and heterogeneity in benefits from vocational versus general secondary education: estimates for early and mature career stages

Hugo Reis, Joop Hartog and Pedro Raposo

2024: A Temporary VAT Cut in Three Acts: Announcement, Implementation, and Reversal

João Nuno Quelhas, Tiago Bernardino, Ricardo Duque Gabriel and Márcia Silva-Pereira

2024: The Monetary Financing of a Large Fiscal Shock

Pedro Teles and Oreste Tristani

2024: Time-varying effects of monetary and macroprudential policies: does high inflation matter?

Wildmer Daniel Gregori and Ângelo Ramos

2024: Monitoring the EU-UK FDI links following Brexit

Ana M. de Almeida, Graeme Walsh, Horatiu Lovin, Marek Benda and Wilko Bolt

2024: Occasional paper on Decentralised Finance

João Almeida, João Alves, Carlos Bettencourt, Maria Bettencourt, Madalena Borges, Filipa Castilho, Sónia Correia, Gisela Fonseca, Mariana Júdice, André Leal, Afonso Marques, Carla Marques, Carlos Martins, Katja Neugebauer, Anaísa Oliveira, Céline Pereira, Joana Pratas, Leonor Queiró, Ricardo Sá, Joana Santos, Dina Teixeira, Pedro Tomés and Isabel Vasconcelos

2024: Policies to tackle energy poverty: the case of Portugal

Sónia Félix and Ana Fontoura Gouveia

2023: What lies behind returns to schooling: the role of labor market sorting and worker heterogeneity

Pedro Portugal, Hugo Reis, Paulo Guimaraes and Ana Rute Cardoso

2023: Taxes and Migration Flows: Preferential Tax Schemes for High-Skill Immigrants

Pedro Teles and João Brogueira de Sousa

2023: The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation

Pedro Dias Moreira and João Monteiro

2023: Regulating Artificial Intelligence

Pedro Teles, João Guerreiro and Sérgio Rebelo

2023: The determinants of the loss given default of residential mortgage loans in Portugal

Márcio Mateus

2023: Navigating with a compass: Charting the course of underlying inflation

António Rua, Nuno Lourenço and João Quelhas

2023: Currency choices and the role of the U.S. dollar in international services trade

Joana Garcia and João Amador

2023: Structural and cyclical capital instruments in the 3D model: a simulation for Portugal

Ana Pereira

2023: Prudential policy treatments to the COVID-19 economic crisis: an assessment of the effects

Duarte Maia

2023: The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sovereign Loan Guarantees, and Financial Stability

Tiago Pinheiro

2023: Gone with the wind: A structural decomposition of carbon emissions

António Rua and Fátima Cardoso

2023: Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period

José Maria and Paulo Júlio

2023: Remote Work, Foreign Residents, and the Future of Global Cities

Pedro Teles and João Guerreiro

2023: First passage times in portfolio optimization: a novel nonparametric approach

Paulo Rodrigues and Gabriel Zsurkis

2023: To use or not to use? Capital buffers and lending during a crisis

Lucas Avezum

2023: The impact of ICT adoption on productivity: Evidence from Portuguese firm-level data

João Amador and Cátia Silva

2023: Tail index estimation in the presence of covariates: Stock returns’ tail risk dynamics

Paulo Rodrigues and João Nicolau

2023: Does green transition promote green innovation and technological acquisitions?

Udichibarna Bose

2023: Mortgage Borrowing Caps: Leverage, Default, and Welfare

Leonor Queiró and João Gouveia-Oliveira

2023: A macroprudential look into the risk-return framework of banks’ profitability

Joana Passinhas

2023: Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions

José Miguel Cardoso da Costa and Rui Albuquerque

2023: A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area

Sandra Gomes and Pascal Jacquinot

2023: Introducing quarterly databases to assess industry-level developments in Portugal and the euro area

Sonia Cabral, Cláudia Duarte and José Maria

2023: Occasional paper on Stablecoins

Banco de Portugal working group on crypto-assets