CHILDHOOD STUNTING: THE LEGACY OF MISALIGNED FOOD POLICY IN NIGERIA

Glenn P. Jenkins (), Godwin Olasehinde-Williams () and Justin Quinton ()
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Glenn P. Jenkins: Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, and Cambridge Resources International Inc.
Godwin Olasehinde-Williams: Department of Management Information Systems, Istanbul Ticaret University, Turkey and Nizami Gajanvi Research Center of Sustainable Development & Green Economy, Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku, Azerbaijan
Justin Quinton: Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada

No 2026-02, Development Discussion Papers from JDI Executive Programs

Abstract: Nigeria faces a severe challenge of chronic malnutrition, ranking among the countries with the highest burden of stunting. The causes of stunting are complex, spanning individual, household, community, and national levels. This study examines how national policy decisions related to food prices, international trade, and regulations have impacted stunting among Nigerian children aged 1 to 4 between 2012 and 2018. It particularly focuses on the combined effects of the oil price crash, currency devaluation, and foreign exchange restrictions during this period. Findings reveal that while Nigeria's stunting rate of 22.04% in 2012 was below the global average of 26.3%, it surged to 31.6% by 2018, significantly exceeding the global average of 21.9%. Mild stunting rose from 11.44% to 14.33%, moderate stunting from 6.31% to 10.14%, and severe stunting from 4.29% to 7.13%. Northern regions, especially the North West, were the most affected, with nearly 50% of children stunted by 2018. The increase in the incidence of stunting, as compared that of 2012, led to about 1.89 million more stunted children. As a consequence, it is estimated that these children will receive 3.1 million fewer years of education (1.64 years lost per additional stunted child). The present value of the economic cost of this additional stunting ranges between $6.511 billion and $8.681 billion, translating to a lifetime wage loss ranging between $3,445.50 and $4594 per stunted child. This study highlights that the Nigerian government’s policy response to the 2014 oil price crash and 2015 currency devaluation significantly worsened child stunting. Although recent policy reversals, such as lifting foreign exchange restrictions on essential food items in 2023, are positive steps, they have come too late to reverse the damage. The study underscores the importance of considering the nutritional impacts of policy decisions related to food prices, agricultural trade, and regulations to protect vulnerable children.

Keywords: Stunting; child health; health cost; government policy; Nigeria. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 I12 I15 O15 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 Pages
Date: 2026-08-28
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