Choices, Beliefs, and Infectious Disease Dynamics

M. Christopher Auld ()

No 938, Working Paper from Economics Department, Queen's University

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic model of behavioural response to the risk of infectious disease. People respond to increased risk of infection by either making marginal adjustments in risky behaviour or by moving to a corner solution where perceived risk is zero. Individuals most prone to high-risk activity will tend to reduce activity less than low-risk people; very high risk people may exhibit "fatalism" and increase risky behaviour as the risk of becoming infected rises. Beliefs about the future course of the epidemic affect current behaviour even when utility is additively separable: pessimistic beliefs induce more risky behaviour. Simulations contrast the disease dynamics generated under these behaviours with those of standard epidemiological models and examine policy issues.

Keywords: epidemiology; AIDS; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 1996-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_938.pdf First version 1996 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qed:wpaper:938

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