Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis

Zeenatul Islam, Mohammad Alauddin (m.alauddin@uq.edu.au) and Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker
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Zeenatul Islam: Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi
Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker: Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi

No 579, Discussion Papers Series from University of Queensland, School of Economics

Abstract: The existing literature pays inadequate attention to any rigorous analysis of perceived severity of climate-driven crop losses, their determinants and implications. The present study fills this gap in three ways. It investigates farmers’ perception about the severity of loss for three rice crops, identifies their determinants and explores policy implications. In doing so, it employs an ordered probit model to data from 1,800 farm households from districts typifying drought- prone and groundwater depleted areas of Bangladesh. Perceived severity of rice production losses was not uniform for all rice crops being higher for the rain-fed crops and appeared broadly consistent with available evidence. Severity of perceived crop loss was associated with geophysical factors, household characteristics, institutional and market accessibility, and household adaptation strategy. Household resource endowment had no perceptible effect on production loss. The impact of these factors was specific to the crop and severity of perceived loss. This study has several policy implications involving market, R & D and institutional support based options. Strengthening support systems for institutional and market accessibility, and science driven adaptation strategy including generation and wider dissemination of drought tolerant rice varieties, and enhancing farmers’ capacity to change rice varieties on a regular basis constitute focal areas.

Keywords: Loss severity; Ground water depletion; Drought severity; Ordered probit; Accessibility; Adaptation strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C35 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-env
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