Using electricity consumption to predict economic activity during COVID-19 in Brazil

Flavio Menezes, Vivian Figer, Fernanda Jardim Nobre and Pedro Medeiros
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Vivian Figer: Center of Studies in Infrastructure Regulation, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Pedro Medeiros: Center of Studies in Infrastructure Regulation, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

No 641, Discussion Papers Series from University of Queensland, School of Economics

Abstract: COVID-19 has led to substantial societal and economic changes. Social distancing, both voluntary and government-mandated through quarantine or lockdowns, became necessary to reduce the speed of transmission. Governments re- sponded with substantive policies to support businesses that had to shut down and workers who were unable to work from home. Here, we show how hourly electricity consumption data, available with a 2-to-5-day lag, can be used to track economic ac- tivity during the pandemic in Brazil. Our electricity consumption indicator fell 6.9% during the rst three and a half months since the introduction of social distancing requirements on March 16th, with the sharpest decline of 14.61% occurring in April. By using monthly consumption data, our electricity consumption indicator shows a decline of 17.27% and 25.52% for the industrial and commercial sectors, respectively, while there is no signigicant e ect in the residential sector over the same period.

Date: 2021-04-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-reg
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