Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case

Duo Qin, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos and Pilipinas F. Quising
Additional contact information
Marie Anne Cagas: Asian Development Bank
Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos: Asian Development Bank
Pilipinas F. Quising: Asian Development Bank

No 527, Working Papers from Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance

Abstract: This paper develops empirical methods of assessing the sustainability and feasibility of public debt using the No Ponzi Game criterion, using the Philippines as the testing case. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macro-econometric model are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.

Keywords: Government debt; Ponzi game; Rollover bond portfolio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E62 F34 H62 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-03-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case (2006)
Working Paper: Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:527

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