The socioeconomic drivers of China's primary PM2.5 emissions

Dabo Guan (), Xin Su, Qiang Zhang, Glen Peters, Zhu Liu, Yu Lei and Kebin He

Working Paper from Harvard University OpenScholar

Abstract: Primary PM2.5 emissions contributed significantly to poor air quality in China. We present an interdisciplinary study to measure the magnitudes of socioeconomic factors in driving primary PM2.5 emission changes in China between 1997?2010, by using a regional emission inventory as input into an environmentally extended input?output framework and applying structural decomposition analysis. Our results show that China's significant efficiency gains fully offset emissions growth triggered by economic growth and other drivers. Capital formation is the largest final demand category in contributing annual PM2.5 emissions, but the associated emission level is steadily declining. Exports is the only final demand category that drives emission growth between 1997?2010. The production of exports led to emissions of 638 thousand tonnes of PM2.5, half of the EU27 annual total, and six times that of Germany. Embodied emissions in Chinese exports are largely driven by consumption in OECD countries.

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