What Can We Learn From Primary Commodity Prices Series Which Is Useful To Policymakers In Resource-Rich Countries?

Kaddour Hadri ()

No 10-07, Economics Working Papers from Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast

Abstract: This paper investigates the properties of real commodity prices from the perspective of policy makers seeking to conduct a successful fiscal policy in resource-rich countries. We found that policy makers face three potential challenges: (1) secular decline of real commodity prices, the so-called Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, (2) real commodity prices are characterised by long-cycles, (3) and relative high volatility of real commodity prices. Employing recent and powerful econometrics/statistical techniques, we found that real commodity prices are mean reverting, declining over time, have long cycles and relatively high volatility and this volatility is time varying. We summarised the most successful solutions to these three challenges faced by policy makers including the countercyclical structural budget technique pioneered by Chile.

Keywords: Resource-rich countries; Prebish-Singer Hypothesis; Cycles and Volatility of Real Commodity Prices; Panel data; Structural Change; Fiscal Policy; Structural Budget (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 E3 E62 H62 N5 O13 Q3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2010-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
ftp://ftp.qub.ac.uk/pub/users/repec/qub/wpaper/MS_WPS_ECO_10_07.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Failed to connect to FTP server ftp.qub.ac.uk: A connection attempt failed because the connected party did not properly respond after a period of time, or established connection failed because connected host has failed to respond.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qub:wpaper:1007

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economics Working Papers from Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mark McGovern ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).