Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

Nicholas King, Dorian Owen and Rick Audas
Additional contact information
Nicholas King: University of Otago
Rick Audas: University of Otago

No 61, NCER Working Paper Series from National Centre for Econometric Research

Abstract: This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

Keywords: playoff uncertainty; match uncertainty; sports league attendance; Australian National Rugby League; fixed effects estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2010-08-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo61.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches (2012)
Working Paper: Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qut:auncer:2010_08

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