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Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
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Stephanie Wallace: Reserve Bank of Australia

RBA Research Discussion Papers from Reserve Bank of Australia

Abstract: We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

Keywords: forecast errors; confidence intervals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E27 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2012-11
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