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¿Can Peru be a New Economic Miracle?

Raymundo Chirinos ()
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Raymundo Chirinos: Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

No 2008-003, Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Abstract: This paper estimates the probability that Peru becomes a new economic miracle. However, since economic theory does not define what exactly an economic miracle is, we must develop a definition based on the top quintile of the distribution of maximum 10-, 15- and 20-year average rates of growth over the period 1961-2002. By using this criterion, we identify 19 “miracle” economies, which will be compared with a similar number of “average” and “disaster” economies. Through a ordered choice model based on a set of initial conditions we determine the probability that Peru lies in the first group over the next 10, 15 and 20 years. The probability that Peru becomes a miracle in the next 10 years is very high; however, the evidence is less conclusive for longer periods.

Keywords: milagro económico; condiciones iniciales; modelo de elección ordenada (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 O49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-01
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