Natural events in Peru: A multidimensional analysis

Jhonatan Vicuña, Maria Fe García and Renzo Castellares
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Jhonatan Vicuña: Social Policy Unit, Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
Maria Fe García: Master in Public Policies and Development, Paris School of Economics (PSE).
Renzo Castellares: Economic Policy Design Division, Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).

No 2025-004, Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Abstract: Natural hazard events are occurring at an increasing rate worldwide, posing significant challenges for Peru. Using data from the National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI), this study describes the spatial and temporal evolution of natural events in Peru from 2003 to 2023. We examine the frequency and distribution of these events in Peru’s territory and describe its impact on affected and displaced populations, relative to local and national populations. The descriptive analysis suggests that extreme precipitations represent the greatest risk for Peruvian households given their high frequency and geographic distribution, while low temperatures also show a significant capacity to affect the population. We introduce a multidimensional metric to identify the provinces most prone to experiencing natural events, located primarily in the southern Andes and the high jungle regions. We also compare this method for identifying the most affected areas with household reports of experiencing natural disasters, using data from Peru’s National Household Survey (ENAHO). Our findings reveal a direct relationship between the frequency and intensity of natural events in the district of residence and the probability that a household reports experiencing this type of shock.

Keywords: Administrative data; climate change; disaster records; household survey data; natural disasters; natural events; shocks; socioeconomic indicators; spatial distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
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