Nowcasting GDP using data revisions in an emerging economy

Diego Winkelried, Jason Cruz and Javier Torres
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Diego Winkelried: Universidad del Pacífico
Jason Cruz: Universidad del Pacífico
Javier Torres: Universidad del Pacífico

No 2026-003, Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Abstract: This paper analyzes the revision process of monthly GDP growth in Peru using a newly constructed real-time dataset. A unified empirical framework is developed to test rationality by jointly examining serial and vintage correlations in revisions. The results reveal systematic and predictable revision patterns, primarily driven by benchmarking procedures followed by the statistical agency. Motivated by these findings, a simple forecast-adjustment model is proposed that improves early assessments of economic activity by anticipating subsequent revisions. The evidence illustrates how revision dynamics in an emerging economy can be exploited to enhance nowcasting performance.

Keywords: Data revisions; rationality tests; nowcasting; real-time data; emerging markets. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 C82 E01 O11 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rbp:wpaper:dt-2026-003

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