Looking to the price setters what can we learn from firmlevel inflation expectations data

Ayrton Amaral, Marique Kruger and Monique Reid

No 11057, Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes from South African Reserve Bank

Abstract: This note gives an overview of the Bureau for Economic Researchs business sector inflation expectations data in South Africa, including additional firm-level dimensions and characteristics, and provides motivation for prioritising the analysis of this data. We show how the disaggregated data can provide valuable insights for policymakers about how well anchored inflation expectations are and the extent to which inflationary pressures filter through the economy and become more generalised. Our illustrative analysis of the disaggregated firm-level data in recent post-COVID years (2021-2023) suggests that second-round effects may have arisen, with evidence that inflation expectations may have become moderately unanchored along with underlying inflationary pressures that have broadened.

Date: 2024-04-25
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