The Quarterly Projection Model of the SARB

Byron Botha, Shaun de Jager, Franz Ruch and Max Steinbach

No 8000, Working Papers from South African Reserve Bank

Abstract: The macroeconomic modelling and forecasting process at the South African Reserve Bank makes use of a suite of models. This paper provides an update of the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) a so-called gap model which has played an integral role in the suite since 2007. Details of the structure and functioning of the QPM model, with particular focus on the four most important gaps the output gap, real exchange rate gap, real interest rate gap, and inflation gap (or inflation from target) are provided. The model is then used to decompose these four gaps in order to tell a coherent story of South Africa's macroeconomic dynamics since the inception of inflation targeting. From the perspective of the policy maker, the QPM provides a tool that quantifies the consequences of its actions on the economy, while adequately highlighting the trade-offs that are faced in the process.

Date: 2017-09-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publicat ... 2017/8000/WP1701.pdf Revision (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Status read failed: An existing connection was forcibly closed by the remote host.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rbz:wpaper:8000

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from South African Reserve Bank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jessica VanWyk ().