Expectation Management of Policy Leaders: Evidence from COVID-19

Peter Haan, Andreas Peichl, Annekatrin Schrenker, Georg Weizsäcker and Joachim Winter
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Peter Haan: FU Berlin and DIW Berlin
Annekatrin Schrenker: FU Berlin and DIW Berlin
Joachim Winter: LMU Munich

No 299, Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition

Abstract: This paper studies how the communication of political leaders affects the expectation formation of the public. Specifically, we examine the expectation management of the German government regarding COVID-19-related regulatory measures during the early phase of the pandemic. We elicit beliefs about the duration of these restrictions via a high-frequency survey of individuals, accompanied by an additional survey of firms. To quantify the success of policy communication, we use a regression discontinuity design and study how beliefs about the duration of the regulatory measures changed in response to three nationally televised press conferences by Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Ministers of the German federal states. We find that the announcements of Angela Merkel and her colleagues significantly prolonged the expected duration of restrictions, with effects being strongest for individuals with higher ex-ante optimism.

Keywords: expectations, belief updating, COVID-19, shutdown (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 D84 H12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11-15
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Expectation management of policy leaders: Evidence from COVID-19 (2022)
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