Permanent School Closures and Crime: Evidence from Scotland

Daniel Borbely (), Markus Gehrsitz (), Stuart McIntyre () and Gennaro Rossi ()
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Daniel Borbely: Department of Economics, Queen’s University Belfast,
Markus Gehrsitz: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow
Stuart McIntyre: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn
Gennaro Rossi: Department of Economics, University of Reading

No em-dp2025-06, Economics Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Reading

Abstract: School closures occur regularly, driven by declining school performance, depopulation, school buildings not meeting safety regulations, and a range of other factors. This has given rise to a large literature examining the effect of school closures on educational outcomes, but only a limited literature on the effect of these closures on local crime rates. In this paper we study the effects of permanent school closures on crime. We leverage the closure of over 200 schools in Scotland between the school years 2006/07 and 2018/19, and employ a staggered difference-in-differences design. Our results show that neighbourhoods affected by school closures experience a reduction in crime of about 10% of a standard deviation, relative to areas where schools remained open. This effect is mainly driven by a reduction in vandalism and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms explaining the negative crime effect, such as changes in neighbourhood composition and displacement of crime-prone youth.

Keywords: crime; school closures; neighbourhoods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I38 K42 R20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2025-11-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law, nep-ltv and nep-ure
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