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Assessing Macro-Forecaster Herding: Modelling versus Testing

Michael Clements

No icma-dp2018-01, ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, Reading University

Abstract: We draw on fixed-event and fixed-horizon survey expectations to better understand macro-economic forecasting behaviour. Fixed-event forecasts facilitate testing for herding behaviour,while fixed-horizon forecasts lend themselves to modelling the effects of consensus forecasts on individual forecasts. By pursuing these two approaches simultaneously for each individual forecaster, we can determine when the significance of the consensus forecasts in explaining an individuals forecasts is consistent with enhancing forecast accuracy, and when it reects strategic behaviour in response to other motives.

Keywords: macro-forecasting; (anti-)herding; ?xed-event forecasts; ?xed-horizon forecasts. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2018-07
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