Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth
Michael Clements and
Ana Beatriz GalvÃ£o
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Ana Beatriz GalvÃ£o: University of Warwick
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ana Beatriz Galvão ()
No icma-dp2014-04, ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, Reading University
We find that model estimates of the term structure of ex ante or perceived macro uncertainty are more in line with realized uncertainty than survey respondents' perceptions for both inflation and output growth. Survey estimates contain short-term vari- ation in short-horizon uncertainty which is less evident in the model-based estimates. We consider the extent to which these short-term variations coincide with short-term movements in stock market uncertainty.
Keywords: Ex ante and ex post uncertainty; Macro and stock market uncertainty; MIDAS models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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