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Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?

Michael Clements

No icma-dp2014-10, ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, Reading University

Abstract: Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.

Keywords: Macro-forecasting; imitative behaviour; histogram forecasts; point predictions. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2014-09
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Journal Article: Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences? (2015) Downloads
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