Forecasters' Disagreement about How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-run Relationships
ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, Reading University
Macro-variables such as consumption, investment and output are expected to move together in the long run. We consider whether survey forecasts of these quantities suggest beliefs about equilibrium relationships play a prominent role in expectations formation. Evidence is brought to bear from an analysis of multivariate measures of forecaster disagreement, as well as tests of forecast optimality. The analysis of disagreement provides little support for the proposition that equilibrium considerations play a key role. Moreover, we generally reject forecast optimality for a majority of forecasters, but there is no evidence that this is due to long-run mis-specifcation.
Keywords: Expectations formation; Equilibrium; Multivariate Disagreement. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2015-09
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, Reading University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Marie Pearson ().