 Individual Forecaster Perceptions of the Persistence of Shocks to GDPICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, University of Reading Abstract: We analyze individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half of the sample of professional forecasters believing shocks do not have permanent effects, we show that these apparent differences may be largely due to short-samples and survey respondents being active at different times. When we control for these effects, using a bootstrap, we formally do not reject the null that individuals' long-horizon expectations are interchangeable at a given point in time. When we apply the same bootstrap approach to their medium-term expectations, we do reject the null. We explore this difference between long and medium-horizon forecasts by decomposing revisions in forecasts into permanent and transitory components. Keywords: long-horizon forecasts; output persistence; heterogeneous beliefs; bootstrap test (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2020-02 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance from Henley Business School, University of Reading Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.