Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting

Paul Gallimore and Patrick McAllister ()
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Paul Gallimore: School of Property & Construction, Nottingham Trent University
Patrick McAllister: Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading Business School

Real Estate & Planning Working Papers from Henley Business School, University of Reading

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in 'self-censorship' or are 'censored' following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2004-11

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