An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters

Pat McAllister (), Graeme Newell and George Matysiak ()
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Pat McAllister: Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading
George Matysiak: Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading

Real Estate & Planning Working Papers from Henley Business School, University of Reading

Abstract: Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Keywords: Real Estate Forecasting; Forecast Accuracy; Forecast Disagreement; Individual Forecast; Consensus (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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