Economics at your fingertips  

Recognizing and Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Projections

Christopher Sims ()

No 925, 2007 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: It is well recognized that projections of monetary policy objectives and policy actions are uncertain. Inflation-targeting banks, to preserve credibility, try to make clear that their projections are uncertain by providing interval forecasts or fan charts rather than simple point forecasts. Probability models, if they were reliable, could help make those intervals and charts more accurate and therefore less likely to erode central bank credibility. But constructing believable model-based fan charts is difficult. There are often multiple, conflicting, plausible models. There is a history of forecast accuracy that may conflict with the model-based measures. This paper takes up these issues and makes some suggestions about methods.

Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2007 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christian Zimmermann ().

Page updated 2023-06-15
Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:925