Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks

Pablo Guerron, Martín Uribe (), Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

No 281, 2010 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: volatility in the real interest rates faced by a sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility process for real interest rates using T-bill rates and country spreads and estimate it with the help of the Particle lter and Bayesian methods. Then, we feed the estimated stochastic volatility process for real interest rates in an otherwise standard small open economy business cycle model. We calibrate eight versions of our model to match basic aggregate observations, two versions for each of the four countries in our sample. We nd that an increase in real interest rate volatility triggers a fall in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked, and a notable change in the current account of the economy.

Date: 2010
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Related works:
Journal Article: Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2011)
Working Paper: Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2009)
Working Paper: Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2009)
Working Paper: Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2009)
Working Paper: Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks (2009)
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