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Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Endogenous Exchange Rate Depreciation

Sergey Popov and David Wiczer

No 314, 2010 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: Sovereign default often affects country’s trade relations. The defaulter’s currency depreciates while trade volume falls drastically. To explain this connection, this study proposes a model to incorporate real depreciation along with sovereign bankruptcy. Defaulters must exchange more of their own goods for imports, which stimulates an adjustment to the equilibrium exchange rate. We demonstrate that a default episode can imply up to a 30% real depreciation. This matches the depreciations observed in crisis events for developing countries. To avoid this, countries are willing to maintain borrowing obligations up to a realistic level of debt.

Date: 2010
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