Life Cycle Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles
Yongsung Chang (),
Jay Hong and
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Marios Karabarbounis: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
No 595, 2013 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics
The standard theory of household portfolio choice is hard to reconcile with the following facts. (i) Despite a high rate of returns the average household holds a low share of risky assets (equity premium puzzle). (ii) The share of risky assets increases in age. (iii) The share of risky assets is disproportionately larger for richer households. We show that a simple life-cycle model with learning about earnings ability can successfully address all three puzzles. Young workers, on average asset poor, face larger uncertainty in their life-time labor income because they do have perfect knowledge of their ability in the market. They hedge this risk in human capital by investing in relatively safe financial assets. As earnings ability is gradually revealed over time, they take more risk in financial investment. When the labor income risks are calibrated to those observed in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, our model with learning reproduces the investment profile we see in the Survey of Consumer Finances.
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