Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics: Lessons from World War 1 in France
Guillaume Vandenbroucke () and
John Knowles ()
No 561, 2016 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics
Why did the marriage probability of single females in France after World War 1 rise 50% above its pre-war average, despite a 33% drop in the male/female singles ratio? We conjecture that war-time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of men with relatively high marriage propensities. Our model of matching over the lifecycle, when calibrated to pre-war data and two war-time shocks, succeeds in matching the French time path under the additional assumption of a pro-natalist post-war preference shock. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed016:561
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