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Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises

Siming Liu
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Siming Liu: Indiana University

No 226, 2018 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of government spending policy during sudden stop crises. Using a quarterly data-set of 30 small open economies, I find that government spending is more effective in stimulating consumption and appreciating real exchange rate during sudden stops than during normal times. To rationalize this, I build a two-sector model with the collateral constraint on external debt. During recession, an adverse international shock reduces consumption and undermines the value of collateral. The collapsing asset price in turn tightens the financial constraint, deteriorates the real absorption, and sets-in a fully-blown debt-deflation mechanism in spirit of Mendoza's 2010. In this context, an increase in government purchase exerts a counteracting force by raising asset prices and stimulating real activities. More importantly, if the government can commit certain paths of spending in the future, the expected real appreciations further relax the financial constraint today. Lastly, I use a calibrated model to explore the multiplier effect under different exchange rate regimes, the asymmetric multipliers, and the multipliers for different shock persistence.

Date: 2018
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