EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Macroeconomic Impact of NAFTA Termination

Joseph Steinberg ()

No 753, 2018 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: U.S. president Trump’s administration has threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement, and policymakers need answers about the effects that will materialize if this threat is carried out. How much would each country and industry gain or lose? Would trade imbalances within the region diminish? What would be the short-run costs of adjusting to new production and expenditure patterns? I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with a detailed input-output production structure and endogenous, time-varying trade elasticities to provide quantitative answers to these questions. If NAFTA is terminated, trade between NAFTA members will fall dramatically, particularly in sectors like agriculture where tariffs trade elasticities are high, and production in the transportation sector would decline. The macroeconomic and welfare consequences of NAFTA termination, however, are minor, and trade imbalances in the region would not decline.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-int
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2018/paper_753.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed018:753

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2018 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christian Zimmermann ().

 
Page updated 2019-09-19
Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:753