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The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming

Patrick Withey and Gerrit van Kooten

No 2011-04, Working Papers from University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group

Abstract: This study examines the impact of climate change on land use in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada, with particular emphasis on how climate change will impact wetlands. A multi-region Positive Mathematical Programming model calibrates land use in the area to observed acreage in 2006. Policy simulations for both climate effects as well as the effects of biofuel policies determine how climate change will affect land use and wetlands. Given that the model calibrates to observed acreage, the policies provide a realistic view of how land use might change from current levels, given the effects of climate change. Results indicate that climate change could decrease wetlands in this area by as much as 50 percent. The effect will be very different depending on whether or not the social benefits of wetlands are considered, and the effects of climate change on wetlands are heterogeneous across the Prairie Provinces.

Keywords: Positive mathematical programming; wetlands conservation; land use change; climate change; biofuels; Prairie pothole region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C63 Q15 Q24 Q25 Q54 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp and nep-env
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Working Paper: The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming (2011) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rep:wpaper:2011-04

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