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Climate Impacts on Chinese Corn Yields: A Fractional Polynomial Regression Model

Baojing Sun and Gerrit van Kooten

No 2012-02, Working Papers from University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group

Abstract: In this study, we examine the effect of climate on corn yields in northern China using data from ten districts in Inner Mongolia and two in Shaanxi province. A regression model with a flexible functional form is specified, with explanatory variables that include seasonal growing degree days, precipitation, technical change and dummy variables to account for regional fixed effects. Results indicate that a fractional polynomial model in growing degree days explains variability in corn yields better than a linear or quadratic model. Among the tested models, the other factors show steady effects on corn yields. Growing degree days, precipitation in July, August and September, and technical change are important determinants of corn yields.

Keywords: Corn yields; fractional polynomial regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2012-07
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