When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning

Kris Wernstedt () and Robert Hersh

RFF Working Paper Series from Resources for the Future

Abstract: Recent scientific and technical advances have increased the potential use of longterm seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region exists, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; b) the definition of critical flood events; c) site-specific features of watersheds; and d) the characteristics of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both institutional and statistical, is needed to facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.

Keywords: Flooding; Climate; ENSO; Water Resources Planning; Water Policy; Water Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-11-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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