Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

Mun Ho, Dale Jorgenson and Kevin Stiroh

RFF Working Paper Series from Resources for the Future

Abstract: This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and presents projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the recent downward revisions to U.S. GDP and software investment, we show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. We then outline a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. Our base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.21% per year over the next decade with a range of 1.33 - 2.92%, reflecting fundamental uncertainties about the rate of technological progress in IT-production and investment patterns. Our central projection is only slightly below the average growth rate of 2.36% during the 1995-2000 period.

Keywords: productivity; information technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-07-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff and nep-ino
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (59)

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Related works:
Chapter: Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence (2006)
Journal Article: Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence (2002)
Working Paper: Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence (2002)
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