Julkisen talouden rahoituksellinen kestävyys Suomessa

Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen

No 1237, Discussion Papers from The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy

Abstract: This study analyses financial sustainability of the Finnish public sector. Current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue for financing public expenditure under an ageing population. The estimate of the sustainability gap is 2œ per cent of GDP, for the period 2010 - 2060. The estimate is based on the 2009 population projection by Statistics Finland, where life expectancies are higher and net migration substantially larger than in earlier projections. Health and long-term care costs are modeled to be partly dependent on the proximity to death, and thus grow slowly compared to the growth in the number of old people. The higher initial public debt increases the vulnerability of the public finances to economic and demographic risks.

Keywords: public finance; pensions; health and long-term care; sustainability gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H30 H62 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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