Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-Term Forecasts for Regional Integration

David Roland-Holst, Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest () and Fan Zhai
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Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest: Asian Development Bank

No 74, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: With the emergence of People's Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have been changed. Using the new dynamic global model, this paper presents forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. The results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, ASEAN economies have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.

Keywords: Asia; economic landscape; global economy; regional specialization; trade agreements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2005-11-01
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Related works:
Working Paper: Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long Term Forecasts for Regional Integration (2008)
Journal Article: Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration (2005)
Journal Article: Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration (2005)
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