Impact of the 2025 United States Tariffs on Firm Export Behavior: Evidence from Asian Customs Data

Ritsuko Iseki, Daisuke Miyakawa and Shigehiro Shinozaki
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Ritsuko Iseki: UTokyo Economic Consulting
Daisuke Miyakawa: Waseda University
Shigehiro Shinozaki: Asian Development Bank

No 838, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports, concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from six selected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first few months after tariffs were announced, export prices fell slightly, compressing profit margins, while the values and export quantities were not largely affected. In terms of the extensive margin, there was on average no systematic increase in short-run exit from exports to the US. Second, exporters of products with higher (lower) demand elasticity lowered prices before tariffs to a larger (smaller) extent. Third, based on Philippine export customs data, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) showed more uniform and deeper price cuts that resulted in lower exit rates on average even as their market access admittedly weakened for easily substituted products. In contrast, larger firms continued participation using more flexible and product specific adjustments. Together, these results suggest that tariffs substantially compressed margins among MSMEs over the short run in order to maintain US export levels.

Keywords: tariffs; firm dynamics; heterogeneity; demand elasticity; MSME exports; global supply chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 F13 F14 L25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 2026-02-26
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