Impacts of Climate Change on the People's Republic of China's Grain Output - Regional and Crop Perspective

Tun Lin (), Xiaoyun Liu (), Guanghua Wan, Xian Xin () and Yongsheng Zhang ()
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Tun Lin: Asian Development Bank
Xiaoyun Liu: China Agricultural University
Xian Xin: China Agricultural University
Yongsheng Zhang: Development Research Center

No 243, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper highlights the regional differences of impacts by estimating output elasticities for different grain crops and different regions. Results indicate that the overall negative climate impacts on the People's Republic of China's (PRC) grain output range from –0.31% to –2.69% in 2030, and from –1.93% to –3.07% in 2050, under different emission scenarios. The impacts, however, differ substantially for different grain crops and different regions. From the perspective of grain crops, for example, modeling results suggest a decrease in rice output by 15.62%–24.26% in 2030 and by 25.95%–45.09% in 2050. Conversely, positive impacts of climate change are reported for both corn and soybean, with corn output increasing by 18.59%–24.27% in 2030 and 32.77%–49.58% in 2050, and soybean output increasing by 0.48%–5.53% in 2030 and 3.96%–6.48% in 2050. The impacts on wheat output are relatively small. Looking at the regional perspective, modeling results reveal that the impacts of climate change in the northern and central regions of the PRC are positive. Specifically, climate change in Northern PRC is calculated to increase the country's grain output by 2.85%–4.80% in 2030, and 5.30%–8.49% in 2050; while in Central PRC the increases will be 3.53%–4.97% in 2030, and 8.91%–13.43% in 2050. Climate change in South PRC and Northwest PRC is projected to have small positive impacts on the country's grain output. On the other hand, the impacts of climate change are negative in the remaining regions, with reductions in 2030 of 4.10%–8.58% in East PRC, 2.29%–4.05% in Southwest PRC, and 2.58%–2.66% in Northeast PRC.

Keywords: climate change; grain crops; output elasticities; Peoples Republic of China; regional differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2011-01-01
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